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The Ammonia Wrap: EU ambitions, new tankers, and GW scale green ammonia in Denmark, Norway, and Chile

Welcome to the Ammonia Wrap: a summary of all the latest announcements, news items and publications about ammonia energy. In this week's wrap: HyDeal Ambition, new marine tankers, fuel forecasts & SOFC developments, a new technical briefing on power generation, UNSW leads research in P2X, GWs of green ammonia in Denmark, Norway and Chile, green ammonia in the Orkneys, new government focus on ammonia in South Africa, and India to make green ammonia production mandatory?

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Industry report sees multi-billion ton market for green ammonia

This week, Argus Media published a white paper on green ammonia. This includes an overview of potential new markets and market volumes, a round-up of green ammonia projects around the world, and an assessment of production technologies and their impact on the ammonia cost curve. Argus estimates that, by 2040, green ammonia could cost just $250 per ton. Argus is an industrial analysis and consulting firm with long experience in the ammonia market, which, traditionally, centers on the fertilizer sector. This white paper therefore provides a welcome commercial perspective on the outlook for ammonia energy.

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Maritime decarbonization is a trillion dollar opportunity

In January 2020, the Global Maritime Forum published new analysis that calculates "the capital investment needed to achieve decarbonization" in line with the International Maritime Organization's Initial GHG Strategy. The result of this analysis, which assumes that ammonia will be "the primary zero carbon fuel choice adopted by the shipping industry," is an aggregate investment of between $1 trillion and $1.4 trillion dollars, from 2030 to 2050, or roughly $50 to $70 billion per year across two decades. Ship-side costs are only 13% of this number. The bulk of the investment will be directed towards green ammonia plants for maritime fuel synthesis. By 2050, this global fuel demand is estimated to be more than 900 million tons per year of green ammonia, more than five time today's total global output of conventional ammonia.

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IEA Analysis: Green Chinese P2A Could Compete with Brown NH3

The IEA has developed a rigorous economic model to examine the proposition that resource intermittency can be managed by siting hydrogen facilities where variable renewable energy (VRE) resources have complementary daily and seasonal production profiles. Last month, IEA Senior Analyst Cédric Philibert shared modeling results from selected sites in China with an audience at the Energy Research Institute in Beijing.  The exercise offers a first quantitative look at two important questions.  First, what is the economic impact of "VRE stacking"?  And second, what is the relative cost position of ammonia produced via a stacking approach? 

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Design Optimization of an Ammonia-Based Distributed Sustainable Agricultural Energy System

Small-scale, distributed production of ammonia better enables the use of renewable energy for its synthesis than the current paradigm of large-scale, centralized production. Pursuant to this idea, a small-scale Haber-Bosch process has been installed at the West Central Research and Outreach Center (WCROC) in Morris, MN [1] and there is ongoing work on an absorbent-enhanced process at the University of Minnesota [2], [3]. Using renewables to make ammonia would greatly improve the sustainability of fertilizer production, which currently accounts for 1% of total global energy consumption [4]. The promise of renewable-powered, distributed ammonia production for sustainability is in fact not…

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Ammonia for energy storage: economic and technical analysis

Developers around the world are looking at using ammonia as a form of energy storage, essentially turning an ammonia storage tank into a very large chemical battery. In the UK, Siemens is building an "all electric ammonia synthesis and energy storage system." In the Netherlands, Nuon is studying the feasibility of using Power-to-Ammonia "to convert high amounts of excess renewable power into ammonia, store it and burn it when renewable power supply is insufficient." While results from Siemens could be available in 2018, it might be 2021 before we see results from Nuon, whose "demonstration facility is planned to be completed in five years." But, while we wait for these real-world industrial data, the academic literature has just been updated with a significant new study on the design and performance of a grid-scale ammonia energy storage system.

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The Investment Case for Sustainable Ammonia Synthesis Technologies

For 100 years, we have made ammonia with the Haber-Bosch process, almost always using a fossil fuel feedstock. Recently, though, government policy, academic innovation, commercial opportunity, and human morality have combined to spur the development of new, “green” ammonia manufacturing processes: sustainable, low-carbon technologies. These new synthesis methods augur a future in which, instead of the single, over-riding drive toward the economies of scale associated with Haber-Bosch, an array of different feedstocks, uses, and business models will support a multiplicity of competing technologies serving multiple markets. This presentation aims to introduce the factors affecting the appetite for commercialization and adoption…

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NH3 from Renewable-source Electricity, Water, and Air: Technology Options and Economics Modeling

Our company, Alaska Applied Sciences, Inc. has developed a simple cost modeling tool based on capital recovery factor (CRF), for a client, to analyze, “Under what conditions will the technology in question produce NH3, at a plant gate cost competitive with NH3 from extant sources, from renewable-source electricity, water, and air?” We will report the results of several case assumptions based on Electrolysis plus Haber-Bosch technology. We will also present a catalog of apparently credible technologies for synthesizing NH3 from renewables-source electricity, water, and air.

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Expanding the Market for Renewable NH3

This report describes the market conditions for various projects using the Solid State Ammonia Synthesis (SSAS) Renewable NH3 process. We address the following activities: possible issues with the scale of the process, some schemes that induce a population to change fuel sources for their energy needs, financial requirements for the creation of new renewable energy sources and new SSAS plants. We discuss methods of monetization for producers, and some of the issues related to the risks of such monetization, and we suggest ways that Renewable NH3 can be a valuable investment as well as an energy source. The conclusion is…